Dr. Jaynes was speaking primarily of EEP-NOx, which is also induced by solar activity. However, that same year (2018) a research paper came out stating there was a long term trend in this Energetic Electron Precipitation that did not match solar or geomagnetic activity
(see Figure 6), and admitted that EEP driving ozone depletion may have actually originated from these ground based VLF transmitters. The hypothesis continues.
In 2005, using the DEMETER microsatellite the North West Cape 1000kW VLF Transmitter was found to enhance the electron flux levels 3,600 times above background levels. Then, in 2012, the American Geophysical Union noted this transmitter was creating the massive signature of a huge horseshoe arc in the ionospheric plasma between the north and south hemispheres.
In 2008, the NWC Transmitter was experimentally observed producing ~430 times more Medium Energy Electron Precipitation or MEE above background levels. Using the latest climate modeling has also shown MEE can have significant effects in long term ozone variability, with up to ~20% depletion of polar mesospheric ozone molecules that block ~90% of solar radiation entering our climate system!
Michel Parrot, the lead scientist of the DEMETER mission for the French National Space Agency, said VLF frequencies between 10 and 20 kHz from ground-based transmitters (used for radio-navigation and communications) caused ionospheric heating, turbulence, and particle precipitation. HF frequencies used by broadcasting stations heat the ionosphere, which changes its temperature and density.
He further stated how the transmitter-induced change and dissipation of plasma waves in the ionosphere may participate in the global warming of the Earth. That the precipitation of energetic electrons by man-made waves may trigger lightning discharges, which are an additional source of Nitric Oxide (NOx) that affects the concentration of ozone in the atmosphere which contributes to the greenhouse effect.
Ozone is a sensitive but profoundly important molecule. The reduction of stratospheric ozone allows more solar energy deeper into the climate system which reflects off the surface as Long Wave InfraRed radiation. This InfraRed radiation heats the surface, ocean water and atmosphere along with Green House Gases (GHG) such as CO2, Ozone and water evaporated from the ocean’s surface. Ozone is composed of three oxygen atoms (O3) which readily react with electrons from other molecules, including Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) such as Chloroflorocarbons (CFCs). For this reason an international treaty called the Montreal Protocol was created to ban the use of CFCs.
Ozone is formed by solar UV and vulnerable to Nitrogen / Hydrogen Oxides present in both the upper as well as the lower atmosphere where ground level ozone forms and acts as a GHG. It’s photochemically created at the equator and transported to the poles via zonal winds and atmospheric dynamics. The altitude at which ozone molecules are created and destroyed are strongly influenced on the electronegativity of the environment where these chemicals react. When transmitters stimulate ion outflows in polar regions and increase the density of ions and electrons, you change the electronegativity and the hydrodynamic processes of ozone are disrupted, which alters the phases of O3 equilibrium and throws its protective effects out of balance.
The old idea that ozone has nothing to do with climate change was overturned in 2019 with discovery of a feedback loop between stratospheric ozone loss and climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.
Though they call the Montreal Protocol a success story, in February of 2020, NASA said the Arctic polar cap ozone was the lowest value in the historic record, showing far more dramatic ozone depletion than the last major Arctic ozone depletion anomaly in 2011. Reports of lower stratospheric ozone depletion continue above populated cities, at the equator, South Africa and the UK! Then months after the largest ozone hole formed over the Arctic, a research paper came out saying ODS weren't as significant in ozone depletion as previously thought.
Russian scientists with the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute Saint-Petersburg have discovered that the hottest region of climate warming in the Southern Hemisphere has been found to coincide with a stable maximum of EEP (E > 1MeV). These particles may penetrate as low as 20 - 40km and they say it’s quite sufficient to supply input of thermal energy capable of warming the regional atmosphere.
In 2018, the Chinese CSES satellite flew over the central Pacific Ocean
and observed a large region of enhanced Energetic Electron Precipitation.
This EEP was induced by the Australian NWC Transmitter located over a
region of warmer than normal water influential in the El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO). (see Figure 7)
ENSO is an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea surface
temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the
tropics and subtropical climate, and was recently found to be dependent
on stratospheric ozone which can affect zonal winds by the amount of
solar UV that makes it through the ozone layer, warming regional areas
of the atmosphere.
CSES satellite also observed radio waves from the NWC Transmitter in the
Southern hemisphere ducting through the magnetosphere to a similar point
in the opposite, northern hemisphere, where it was reacting with PowerLine
Radiation from the Chinese power grid which also creates whistlers in the
If the NWC Transmitter in Australia has been experimentally shown to
produce ~430 times more Medium Energy EEP.. and other research
suggests MEE can reduce polar mesospheric ozone ~20% - then it's
worth considering that the MEE created by the NWC transmitter might
also be having a significant effect on ozone variability - especially if we're
witnessing a warm spot in the ocean right under the MEE anomaly.
In December 2019, the recurrence of another anomaly - a massive,
warmer-than-normal pool of water, first discovered in 2013 - formed in
the Pacific Ocean off the Washington coast called ‘The Blob’. Six years
earlier, satellites observed an enhancement of Energetic Electron
Precipitation in this area created by interactions between two VLF
transmitters; one north of Seattle and the other in Hawaii.
We can dismiss oceanic warm spots as completely natural, but given
the complex interplay of upper atmospheric ozone and Transmitter
Induced Electron Precipitation, we don’t actually know what
“natural” is anymore.